Participants in ASA’s Monthly Sales Report logged a median sales decline of -5.2% for the month of March.

Industry Insights, ASA’s long-time business intelligence partner, notes March was a challenging month for most participants. By primary business emphasis, industrial PVF firms reported year-over-year monthly sales declined -2.2%, while PHCP wholesalers reported sales declines of -5.4%. Blended PHCP/PVF shops reported a sales decrease of -5%.

Industry Insights adds that after reporting 5% growth in February, it’s disappointing that all respondents overall reported median sales decline of -5% for March 2024 vs. 2023, though it’s worth noting March 2024 had fewer sales/business days vs. March 2023.

On a positive note, Industry Insights adds, sales increased more than 3% on a month-to-month basis (March vs. February 2024). Additionally, year-to-date sales through the first quarter 2024 vs. 2023, and trailing 12-month sales both remained in positive territory with growth of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.

Inventory contracted -1% for March 2024 vs. March 2023. The median three-month average days sales outstanding jumped to nearly 43 days after falling to 40 days in February.

“March 2024 presented a complex economic narrative with industry participants reporting a notable -5% decline in sales year-over-year,” Industry Insights Senior Vice President Greg Manns says. “Despite these difficulties, there was a commendable month-to-month sales increase of more than 3% compared to February. The year-to-date and trailing 12-month sales figures also demonstrated resilience, registering modest gains.

“The economic scenario of a ‘safe landing’ is beginning to resemble a turbulent, yet ultimately safe landing, marred by persistent inflation, a tight labor market, and significant pressures on the housing sector amidst broader geopolitical and election-year uncertainties.”Industrial PVFIndustrial PVF firms reported a median sales decline of -2.2%. Calendar year-to-date, PVF wholesalers had a median sales increase of 0.3%, while the trailing-12-month total is in positive territory at 3.4% (March 2024 vs. March 2023). PVF respondents reported a median decline in inventory of -7.8%, while the 3-month days sales outstanding for March stood at 44.8. Most respondents (92.3%) reported an increase in gross margin percentage, while 46.2% of respondents reported year-to-date profit before taxes was up, while 30.8% said it was down.

What ASA distributor members are saying:

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• “Business is pretty steady, but competition is robust. The stubbornly high interest rates have tamped down business to some degree, but the privately funded projects are going strong.”
• “It is slower and we are seeing some slow pay on accounts.”
• “March was a tough month with two less selling days than last year. Pipelines are still robust, but putting up growth is a challenge and managing costs is extremely difficult.”
• “Modest growth, positive outlook for 2024.”
• “We had a much better first quarter than we had projected, with sales actually improving by 13% over our first-quarter 2023 results.”
• “There has been some contraction on a few big projects. However, schools, warehouses, some other medical, and casinos have been moving forward. Just how much uncertainty is due to an election year chaos, global conflicts or economic worries is difficult to determine.”