As we quickly close in on the 2022 mid-term election, voters have been subjected to a veritable rollercoaster ride of rhetoric and their sentiment has reflected this.
In the earlier part of the year, Republicans looked poised to be at the leading edge of a tsunami that would not only provide massive majorities in Congress, but also in governors’ mansions and legislatures throughout the country. Emergence from the COVID pandemic, a European war, unchecked inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, increased energy costs and an out-of-balance labor market all provided an environment that provided Republicans a healthy political boost.
Then the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision came down in July.
Where many Democrats had been disheartened with economic issues, just like their Independent and Republican counterparts, Dobbs started to reinvigorate the Democratic base, especially with women aged 18-34 and 65+. What once was deemed to be settled law, now came to the forefront in many battleground states. On the other hand, issues such as the Inflation Reduction Act, immigration, and even the raid of former President Trump’s home started to reinvigorate the Republican base. As this is being written, the Federal Reserve has just increased interest rates to tame the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years.
Over the course of the last nine decades, the president’s party has always lost seats during its first midterm election – with the exceptions of 1934 and 2002. The question remains, will the Dobbs decision change the course of history and allow Democrats to keep their majorities in Congress? The answer to this question has yet to be written, but there are some indicators that historic trends will prevail.
While the polling industry has taken its share of blows since 2016, much of the methodology since then has remained the same, especially since the 2020 election. Many of the traditional voting coalitions that both major parties have relied on as their foundation of support, continue to shift. For example, college-educated suburbanites that historically provided reliable votes for Republicans, have started to shift to the Democrats since 2016, with social issues contributing to the change.
At the same time, blue collar voters and Latinos have started to trend toward Republicans during the same timeframe. Since 2020, Latino voters have shifted Republican by about 20 points, mainly driven by economic issues. This helped Republicans win a special election, in a Democratic-held district in Texas, over the summer.
HOW IT COULD SHAKE OUT IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS
As a result of redistricting and national attitude, Republicans are extremely likely to win back the House. At this time, they only need to win five seats to capture the majority, which they can do easily based on the new district maps in Florida and Texas alone. There will be some outliers such as the Alaska At-Large District, where Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola won the seat for her party for the first time since 1972. Alaska’s new, ranked choice voting system provided an election result where 60% of the electorate voted for a Republican, yet a Democrat won the seat. This will create more questions as advocates try to increase adoption of ranked choice voting throughout the country.
The real bellwethers will be competitive Senate seats, dispersed geographically across the nation. Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina will be the key states to watch on election night, with outliers such as Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington state that could be in play as well.
As of this writing, it appears Republicans will pick up around 25 seats in the House. In the Senate, it’s a little more unpredictable. The results could range from a 51-49 Democratic-controlled Senate to a 52-48 split with Republicans in charge. As this is the most volatile environment in recent political history, the results are far from being written.
Stay tuned and enjoy the show as we see how the last four weeks play out. We will be back after the election with a wrap-up and outlook as to how the new Congress will shape policy in 2023.
And please, don’t forget to vote!
