ASA August macroeconomic outlook
The American Supply Association’s latest installment of its Monthly Advisor, available exclusively to ASA member companies and prepared by ITR Economics, reports U.S. industrial production is in an accelerating growth trend, up 0.2% from last year’s level at this time.
Total manufacturing production, according to data from the Advisor, is up 0.6% compared to last year.
The Advisor notes the industrial economy is rising off consumer strength and demand for industrial goods, both domestically and abroad. It adds the U.S. exports of goods are above the year-ago level and the dollar has weakened in recent months, which bodes well for U.S. producers/exporters.
U.S. Real GDP
ITR Economics reports in the new Advisor that U.S. real gross domestic product came in below expectation, thus ITR mildly downgraded its forecast for 2017 and 2018, but raised its 2019 outlook. ITR, it says in the Advisor, expects GDP to grow 2.8% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018 as growth in the housing market and retail sales boost the economy into early 2018.
ITR Economics says to expect tighter monetary policy as central banks in the U.S. and Europe plan to make mild adjustments to interest rates under the expectation of a stronger economy through 2018.
Some other highlights from the new Advisor edition:
1) The average North American Rotary Rig Count is 18.8% higher in the 12 months through July than the prior year. ITR Economics reports rig counts are in an accelerating growth trend, but the count is 35.3% below the 10-year average. ITR adds individuals should expect increasing global demand to support the rise in North American rig counts.
2) In analyzing ASA member sales during the 12 months through July, ITR noted those numbers were 6.3% above the year-ago level. ITR, in its Advisor summary, predicts sales will accelerate through early 2018 and then slow in its pace of growth through 2019 but avoid contraction. ITR, in its Advisor reporting, suggests considering opening up more distribution channels to capture market share as sales are expected to be record-breaking through at least 2019.