Current situation:

• The producer price index for copper tube and fittings was down 4.9% month-over-month (down 2.8% in the last update) and was down 6.3% year-over-year (down 5.4% Y/Y last month).
• Prices (lb):  1 year ago - $2.69; 6 months ago - $2.92; 90 days ago - $2.65; Yesterday - $2.61; 12 month price range $2.84 high - $2.51 low; average price Feb - Apr: $2.90; May - Jul $2.68; Aug $2.57.  

Key factors that could affect supply or price:

• The U.S. China trade dispute.  China's slowing economy (the world's biggest metals consumer).  The Fed chairman said Friday that he does not foresee a recession in the U.S. even as the world's economy weakens.  The market did recover a little this week from its 2-year low on Tuesday on news the U.S. and China agreed to hold further talks to try and resolve the dispute that has weakened global growth and metals consumption.  "The downside pressure is not over, the downside risks are still concrete” is the opinion of many analysts who question how much further the market can rally while the trade war is still on.  Good news on this front should boost copper, but it will not suddenly flip the switch on slowing economies.