Current situation:

  • The Producer Price Index for copper tube and fittings was up 4.8% month-over-month (up 5.8% in the last update) and was up 16.9% year-over-year (up 10.0% Y/Y last month). 


Key factors that could affect supply or price:

  • Prices:  Currently trading at $3.62 lb., down from the 7-year high of $3.70 lb. last Thursday, but still well above the average over the past 12 months of $2.83 lb., and 72% ahead of the $2.11 lb. recorded on March 23, 2020.  Analysts expect the price to average $3.52 lb. on the high side and $2.90 on the low side for 2021.  
  • Headlines:  The consensus is that the recent rally is due to China's unprecedented buying spree and investors betting on a long-term commodity- intensive global recovery.  That said, pricing retreated slightly as the dollar has rebounded, raising concerns about the pandemic effects, particularly in China and the last week's job data showing the U.S. lost jobs for the first time in eight months. Most analysts expect this downward trajectory to be short-lived and remain bullish on pricing, as demand remains high and inventories low.