Current situation:
- Producer prices for HDPE pipe were down .5% M/M (down 1.2% last month) and were down 3.2% Y/Y (down 2.3% Y/Y last month). Plastic pipe fittings and unions were down .5% M/M (down 1.1% last month) and yet were up 7.5% Y/Y (up 6.3% last month).
- The HDPE industry is still expected to grow at a 3.8% CAGR from 2019-2024, according to Lucintel.
Key factors that could affect supply or price:
- Many pipe producers thought the October $.03/lb. resin increase had little to no chance of sticking, but it appears that sentiment is changing due to ethylene pricing moving up. That said, we are seeing the usual foot-dragging on the implementation of the increase by some pipe producers, while others have started writing orders at the new levels, which reflect a 5-7% increase, so maybe there's some traction.... maybe.
