Houzz, a platform for home remodeling and design, released the Q3 2019 Houzz Renovation Barometer, which tracks residential renovation market expectations, project backlogs and recent activity among businesses in the construction sector and the architectural and design services sector in the U.S. The Barometer points to mixed expectations for home renovation market activity in the third quarter of the year.

“The third quarter outlook for the architecture and design sector is the most optimistic of the past two years,” said Nino Sitchinava, Houzz principal economist. “However, construction sector sentiments are some of the lowest we’ve seen since 2015, although still high in absolute terms. Weather was the leading concern among construction businesses in the second quarter, which is understandable, since it was the wettest quarter in the U.S. since 1957.

“Hitting a two-year low, average construction project backlogs also declined at the start of Q3, implying that households are reluctant to start construction this late in the year. While labor shortages are top of mind for construction and architecture businesses alike, a third of businesses report a negative impact from tariffs, with rising material costs eroding margins on existing contracts and causing unease among prospective customers.”

Construction sector

• The Expected Business Activity Indicator related to project inquiries and new committed projects decreased to 71 in Q3 (down three points relative to Q2). The decrease is a result of a decline in expectations for both project inquiries (down two points to 72 in Q3) and new committed projects (down three points to 70 in Q3).

• The Project Backlog Indicator decreased to 4.3 weeks in Q3 relative to Q2 (5.0 weeks). Wait times are 2.2 weeks shorter than a year ago.

• The Recent Business Activity Indicator related to project inquiries and new committed projects declined to 64 in Q2 (down three points relative to Q1). This follows a decline in project inquiries to 64 in Q2 (down two points relative to Q1), and a decrease in new committed projects to 64 compared to Q1 (down three points).

Architectural and design services sector

• The Expected Business Activity Indicator related to project inquiries and new committed projects increased slightly to 71 in Q3 (up one point relative to Q2). Expectations increased for project inquiries (up three points to 70 in Q3) and remained steady for new committed projects (at 72 in Q3).

• The Project Backlog Indicator remained steady at 4.7 weeks in Q3 relative to Q2 (4.7 weeks). Wait times are 0.9 weeks shorter than a year ago. 

• The Recent Business Activity Indicator related to project inquiries and new committed projects remained steady at 63 in Q2. 

Survey info

The Houzz Renovation Barometer is based on a quarterly online survey sent to a national panel of businesses with an online profile on Houzz. The Barometer keeps a pulse on home renovation market conditions via three distinct indices that track expected, current, and recent business activity in two related industry sectors, the construction sector and the architectural and design services sector.

The Expected Business Activity Indicator is based on survey questions that ask businesses to report whether they expect the number of project inquiries and new committed projects to increase, decrease or stay unchanged in the upcoming quarter relative to the prior quarter. Scores for each component are then computed as a seasonally adjusted diffusion indices on a scale of 0 to 100, with index values over 50 indicating that a greater proportion of firms reported quarter-over-quarter increases than those reporting decreases. 

The Recent Business Activity Indicator is based on survey questions that ask businesses to report whether they observed the actual number of project inquiries and new committed projects increasing, decreasing or staying unchanged in the most recent quarter relative to the prior quarter. Scores for each component are then computed as a seasonally adjusted diffusion indices similar to the Expected Business Activity Indicator. Recent Business Activity Indicator scores can be compared to the Expected Business Activity Indicator scores for any given quarter to see whether actual activity met, exceeded, or fell short of expectations.

Finally, the Backlog Indicator is based on survey questions that ask businesses to report wait times in weeks before a company can start work on a new midsize project. Scores are computed as average wait times without a seasonal adjustment. 

All three indices are computed individually for three subsectors in the construction sector (build only remodelers, design and build remodelers, and specialty trade contractors) and for two subsectors in the architectural and design services sector (architects and interior designers), as well as for nine regions that follow U.S. Census Bureau Divisions. The aggregated national indices are computed using industry subsector weights and regional weights derived from the 2016 U.S. Census County Business Patterns survey. Detailed methodology and underlying quarterly indices for the construction sector and the architectural and design services sector, and other information on market conditions can be found on houzz.com/research.

The Q3 2019 Barometer was fielded June 27th through July 10th and garnered responses from more than 2,600 small businesses on Houzz. n=2,622.

The Q4 2019 Houzz Renovation Barometer release date is October 10, 2019.