Well, I got my answer while serving as a panel member on a discussion of R22 phase outs at the Northeastern conference of the HARDI association, which was held near Atlantic City last May. After I handled my part where I ranted and raved to the crowd about the poor legislation, which resulted in the phasing-out of this benign and beneficial refrigerant, as well as about the inept EPA rulings, which are resulting in massive dumping of this refrigerant into the atmosphere, a speaker from a refrigerant manufacturing company (Honeywell) gave us the explanation for the current plentiful supply of R22. It seems that the anticipated growth in demand never materialized. In addition, an HCFC, which is used in foam blowing, was discontinued early, and this resulted in effectively raising the production cap on R22. So instead of seeing shortages, there is - and will be for some time in the future - more than enough of this refrigerant to go around.
So, when will we start seeing tight supplies of R22? Nobody knows. But the manufacturer assured us that this might not happen for the next 10 years or so, despite a continuously lowering cap on production. Why is that? The fact that manufacturers are starting to produce air-conditioning equipment that uses R410a is lowering the pressure on R22 supplies. And he predicted that in 2008, when manufacturers will be forced by law to raise the minimum efficiency on residential cooling equipment to 12-SEER, most of them will make the switch to R410a across their product lines, leaving the rest of R22 production for use in servicing existing equipment.