The esteemed
American Economic Association, composed of the country’s best economists, met
recently and issued their forecast for the next decade. The consensus view of
lower than average growth for the next decade should come as no surprise. The
growth will average around 2% which is well below other years where 3% plus
averages are not uncommon.
Understand that
the average is for a decade and there will be some good years and slow years. Specifically,
on the rebound, expect 2010 to 2015, to be good years and, after that,
according to the forecast, a slowdown. In the slow growth environment, if wholesalers
want to grow their firm, they will have to outperform their competition. And
they will have to do it while giving the customer consistent, well defined
value, at a good price.
In a commodity
industry where growth is slow, the need for streamlining the organization is
prescient and doing this while doing things faster, better, and less expensively
is a real challenge. No longer will growth be assured by placing a warm body in
a slot while hyping them on the company’s history and products. Wholesaling is full of lifestyle
owner/operators who often work to schedules of their own calling, build
vacation homes, have country club memberships, and enjoy the good life as the
business supports the lifestyle. This observation is not meant to be insulting
as there is nothing wrong with running a lifestyle business if you can afford
it.
However, the
future environment doesn’t allow for waste and excess, and anyone who believes
that it does will be in for a shock. Owner/operators will work longer hours or
trim their personal income and shift it to hiring more capable managers who can
do faster, better, and less expensive more efficiently than the sales guy-turned-manager
model that dominates many companies. In my estimation, there will need to be an
upgrading of the functional capabilities of many wholesalers as they grow
through consolidation or through the failure of small guys and over-leveraged
super-large companies. And nowhere will the upgrading and streamlining of
headcount be more evident than in the position of branch manager.
Central to
streamlining the firm is knowing who, what, and how many line and staff
managers the firm needs. The decision process for understanding how to staff
the middle and upper echelons is never easy and it comes with a lot of trial
and error. There are few things, however, that will plague the owner/operator
in the next decade than how to staff the middle and upper level areas of the
firm. The debate of staff, in my view, will concentrate on the role of the
branch manager and what he/she is expected to do. And, in many instances, the
position may not be needed at all with many of the duties going to other
positions.
The branch
manager is an old and revered position dating back to the days when the place
function and local market knowledge and relationships were central to the
operation of the corporation. These variables are still important, but they are
not, in my view,
as important as they were in years past. Why? Since wholesaling is an
uber-mature business with better, more pervasive, and easily accessed knowledge
of products, service, and pricing, the need to inspect their quality and
profitability, at the local market level is lessened. In years past, the branch
manager handled pricing, sales management, billing, collections, operations,
hiring and firing and other functions.
However, many of
these functions have become more complex both as the firm has grown and as
customers demand more. How practical and profitable is it to have a branch
manager handle the pricing, sales management, billing, collections, operations,
hiring and firing and other functions? My own view, for the growing wholesale
firm, especially once the company gets 50MM or more in revenues is that, to do
the knowledge well, the firm needs to have a centralized expert in these areas
and rely less on the local manager to handle these functions.
This does not
mean that there doesn’t need to be training on these subjects and proper
procedures on these functions for the operators of the local market. But having
these functions controlled by the local manager, for a larger firm is
dangerous. Why? There are simply too many interpretations of what is right or
wrong and the firm customizes by the local market or, God forbid, by every
account. The result of this individual customization is a firm whose operating
costs can’t be sustained or, worse yet, branch managers and sellers who promise
services whose costs outrun the margin dollars of the account. There is a lot
of “customization on steroids” in distribution and it’s in large measure not
sustainable.
I realize that
this type of logic goes against the grain of history in distribution but
consider the following subject areas and what is cutting edge in distribution
knowledge and see if your branch manager can give you proper definitions by
function.
Pricing- Segmented pricing, transaction based
pricing, behavioral pricing, cost to serve implications of pricing, list
pricing management, service pricing and cost-recovery pricing.
Solicitation and Sales
Management- Account
balancing, boundary setting, matching solicitation models to segment dynamics,
comfort zone matching, and matching compensation models to the segment
strategy.
Service Operations- Service quality measurement, streamlining
service processes, limiting service promises, cost to serve analyses and their
implications.
I find many
wholesaler branch managers and even executives who can’t define these areas of
knowledge and yet they are central to operating a modern-day distribution firm.
I’ve researched and consulted on them for a decade and, when properly applied,
they work.
The Research and New Management Models
In late 2007, I
did research on the future of the branch manager for a major distribution
industry. The upshot of the work was that the industry that covered industrial,
contractor, institutional, and government markets is that the majority of these
firms expected that the branch manager handle all these functions in the future
as they had in the past. It is no surprise to me that the industry’s
performance has lagged that of many other sectors and there are too many
wholesalers who, to borrow from a former blog entry, compete for pennies of
profit while whacking each other with Nerf bats in a dark room.
It is simply not
practical and recommended for any one person to manage pricing, solicitation
and sales management, and operation management. Why? The knowledge is too
complex and there is only so much one person can and should be expected to do.
In response to this, some few wholesalers, have taken the bull by the horns and
done the following:
-
Define and centralize core functions including pricing, solicitation
management, operations, and human resources.
- Staff
the corporation with qualified managers with experience and formal education
while charging them with fully developing the functions and educating firm
members on the proper procedures, rules and regulations.
- Rationalize
the branch manager model with hybrid structures including regional managers
with office managers at the branch level. The overall cost to the firm is less
as branch managers are replaced by better process knowledge and procedures
while reducing the need for a manager at every branch.
This line of
thinking is, for many in the grand business of wholesaling, unpopular. Branch
managers helped build the business and the position can still be a valuable
part of the firm. But asking the branch manager to do all things at the local
level, without functional specialization at the corporate office, is a model
that won’t make it in tomorrow’s economy of slow growth and cost
sensitivity.
I hope in the
future to see more streamlined distribution firms with process experts at
corporate and well documented implementation of their recommendations at the
local level. I am not too excited about wholesalers who push all the
decision-making to the local level and expect superior profits. They are a
vestige of the past and their future is not so assured as it was in dad’s and
granddad’s generation.
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