Columbus, Ohio-based Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International released its monthly TRENDS report, showing average sales for HARDI distributor members increased by 4.3% in September 2015.

The annualized growth through August 2015 is 6.3%. The annual growth rate has remained close to 6% for the majority of the year.

“The modest growth was not unexpected,” HARDI Market Research and Benchmarking Analyst Brian Loftus said. “We have put together two or three strong months and the current results were being compared to a 15% gain last year.”

HARDI Senior Economist Connor Lokar added: “The U.S. economy is not in recession, as many believe, and it will not be entering recession. It is simply slowing down. Annual retail sales are mildly decelerating and the same could be happening to HARDI member sales in the months ahead. This is in line with our expectation for cooling growth in consumer spending in the latter stages of 2015.”

The days sales outstanding (DSO), a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills, is now at 43.5. “There is no sign of customer stress in the recent DSO trends,” Loftus said.